The reality of another Trump administration raises critical questions about the future of high-skilled immigration, particularly H-1B and L-1 visas. From 2016 to 2020, Trump's restrictive immigration policies reshaped the landscape for foreign professionals, employers, and international students. The denial rates for H-1B and L-1 visas surged to unprecedented levels, with Request for Evidence (RFE) rates reaching 60% and denial rates exceeding 25%, compared to the sub-8% denial rates under the Obama and Biden administrations. As Trump hinted at re-election, stakeholders wonder if history is set to repeat itself—or worsen.

Key Trump-Era Policies That Could Resurface: 

H-1B Visa Restrictions: The Trump administration's efforts to redefine “specialty occupation” and implement substantial wage increases (ranging from 40% to 100%) for H-1B positions posed significant financial and operational challenges for employers. Consulting firms and IT companies, in particular, faced heightened scrutiny with stricter employer-employee relationship requirements, including extensive documentation mandates for third-party work sites. Although these measures were halted through litigation, a unified Republican control of the White House, Senate, and Congress could grant the Trump administration greater freedom to enact similar laws or regulations if given the opportunity.

L-1 Visa Challenges: L-1 visas for intracompany transferees faced significant challenges under the Trump administration. Policies that closely examined the qualifying relationship between foreign and U.S. entities, along with concerns over wage disparities, resulted in high denial rates for L-1 petitions. A new Trump administration might introduce additional restrictions, such as requiring Labor Condition Applications (LCAs) similar to those for H-1B visas and prohibiting L-1 workers from being placed at client sites. These stringent measures could further incentivize employers to turn to offshoring as a more practical alternative.

Threats to OPT and STEM OPT: The Trump administration proposed limiting or eliminating Optional Practical Training (OPT), a program that helps international students gain U.S. work experience, along with its STEM extension. These restrictions discouraged international students from studying in the U.S. and created barriers to transitioning into H-1B roles.

Replacement of Employment-Based Green Cards with a Point System: Speculation has grown about whether Trump might seek to replace the PERM and employment-based green card system with a point-based immigration model similar to Canada and Australia. Such a system would prioritize skills, education, and age over employer sponsorship, potentially sidelining industries reliant on employer-based recruitment.