The Trump administration has officially moved to overhaul the H-1B visa system, potentially ending the decades-old lottery system in favor of a wage-based selection process.
What’s Happening:
Citizenship and Immigration Services notified the federal Office of Management and Budget of a proposed rule involving a “weighted selection process” for the visa. The lottery-based visa program could be replaced with a new weighted selection process that would prioritize higher-paying positions over random selection.
Key Changes Proposed:
- Current System: Random lottery among all qualified applicants for 85,000 annual H-1B visas (65,000 regular + 20,000 for advanced degree holders)
- Proposed System: Merit-based selection prioritizing applications based on wage levels and skill criteria
Who Wins and Loses:
Winners:
- High-paying tech positions at major corporations
- Companies offering six-figure salaries
- Workers with advanced degrees and specialized skills
Potential Losers:
- Startups, nonprofits, and small businesses, many of which rely on H-1B workers but can’t offer the six-figure salaries tech giants routinely do
- Recent college graduates without significant work experience
- Indian nationals, who accounted for nearly 75% of all H-1B visas issued in FY 2024
Historical Context:
This echoes Trump’s first-term approach when his administration imposed a rule that made allocation of H-1B visas salary based, scrapping the lottery used to award visas. The rule was withdrawn by Trump’s successor, former President Joe Biden.
Under Trump’s first term, federal authorities dramatically boosted scrutiny of H-1B applications, and nearly doubled application denials, to one out of four applications in 2018.
Timeline & Next Steps:
- Completed: DHS notification to Office of Management and Budget (July 17, 2025)
- Next: Federal Register publication and public comment period
- Final: Rule finalization and implementation (timing unclear)
The proposed changes are unlikely to affect the 2025 H-1B allocation, as the 2025 H-1B lottery was completed, with 85,000 more foreign graduates allowed into the U.S. job market.
Reactions:
Support: Connor O’Brien, a researcher at the Economic Innovation Group, told Newsweek:
“Eliminating the H-1B lottery in favor of a system that prioritizes higher earners first is a no-brainer”
Concern: Immigration attorneys warn the changes could shut out smaller employers and recent graduates who can’t compete on salary alone.
Bottom Line:
The Trump administration is reviving its effort to transform H-1B visa allocation from a random lottery to a merit-based system favoring higher wages. If implemented, this would mark the most significant change to the program since its creation, potentially reshaping how skilled foreign workers enter the U.S. job market.
